Best Practices Checklist: Conducting a Schedule Risk Analysis

• A schedule risk analysis was conducted to determine

  • the likelihood that the program completion date will occur,
  • how much schedule risk contingency is needed to provide the acceptable certainty of completion by a specific date,
  • risks most likely to delay the project, and
  • the paths or activities that are most likely to delay the program.

• The schedule was assessed against best practices before the simulation was conducted. The schedule network clearly identifies work to be done and the relationships between detailed activities and includes a minimum number of justified date constraints.

• The SRA has optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic duration data fields.

• The SRA accounts for correlation in the uncertainty of activity durations.

• Risks are prioritized by probability and magnitude of effect.

• The risk register was used in identifying the discrete risks potentially driving the schedule before the SRA was conducted.

• The SRA data and methodology are available and documented.

• The SRA identifies the activities in the simulation that most often ended up on the critical path, so that near-critical path activities can be closely monitored.

• The risk inputs have been validated. The probabilities and impact ranges are reasonable and based on information gathered from knowledgeable sources, and there is no evidence of bias in the risk data.

• The baseline schedule includes schedule contingency to account for the occurrence of risks. Schedule contingency is calculated by performing an SRA and comparing the schedule date with that of the simulation result at a preferred level of certainty.

• Schedule contingency is held by the program manager and allocated to contractors, subcontractors, partners, and others as necessary for their scope of work.

• The program documents the derivation and amount of contingency management has set aside for risk mitigation and unforeseen problems. An assessment of schedule risk is performed to determine whether the contingency is sufficient.

• A contractor performs an SRA during the formulation of the performance measurement baseline to provide the basis for contractor schedule reserve at the preferred confidence level.

• An SRA is performed on the schedule periodically as the schedule is updated to reflect actual progress on activity durations and sequences, as well as new risks.