Case Study 16: From Joint Intelligence Analysis Complex, GAO-17-29, November 3, 2016

Department of Defense’s (DOD) Joint Intelligence Analysis Complex (JIAC), which provides critical intelligence support for the U.S. European and Africa Commands and U.S. allies, is currently located in what DOD has described as inadequate and inefficient facilities at Royal Air Force (RAF) Molesworth in the United Kingdom. To address costly sustainment challenges and instances of degraded theater intelligence capabilities associated with the current JIAC facilities, the Air Force plans to spend almost $240 million to consolidate and relocate the JIAC at RAF Croughton in the United Kingdom.

GAO assessed the cost estimate for the military construction project to consolidate and relocate the JIAC at RAF base Croughton and found that it partially met three and minimally met one of the four characteristics of a reliable cost estimate defined by GAO best practices. For example, it minimally met the credibility standard because it did not contain a sensitivity analysis; such analyses reveal how the cost estimate is affected by a change in a single assumption, without which the estimator will not fully understand which variable most affects the estimate. Unless the DOD’s methodology incorporated all four characteristics of a high-quality, reliable estimate in preparing future cost estimates for the JIAC construction project, it would not provide decision-makers with reliable information.

After DOD’s 2013 decision to consolidate the JIAC at RAF Croughton, DOD organizations conducted multiple reviews in response to congressional interest in Lajes Field, Azores (Portugal) as a potential alternative location for the JIAC. These reviews produced different cost estimates, in particular for housing and communications infrastructure, because the DOD organizations that developed them relied on different assumptions. DOD officials said that these reviews were not conducted with the same level of rigor as formal cost estimates, because DOD had concluded its analysis of alternatives and no credible new evidence had been produced to indicate the department should revisit its initial decision to consolidate the JIAC at RAF Croughton.

GAO reported these findings on November 3, 2016 in Joint Intelligence Analysis Complex: DOD Needs to Fully Incorporate Best Practices into Future Cost Estimates, GAO-17-29.