Case Study 9: From 2020 Census, GAO-15-225, February 5, 2015

The U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) planned to significantly change the methods and technology it used to count the population with the 2020 Decennial Census, such as offering an option for households to respond to the survey via the Internet. This involved developing and acquiring IT systems and infrastructure to support the collection and processing of Internet response data. GAO was asked to review the Bureau’s efforts to deliver an Internet response option for the 2020 census. Among other objectives, GAO was asked to assess the reliability of estimated costs and savings for Internet response. To do this, GAO reviewed Bureau studies, cost estimates, project plans, schedules, and other documentation.

The Bureau had taken preliminary steps and planned to further examine the impact of introducing an Internet response option on historically hard-to-count segments of the population (these include, but are not limited to, minorities, renters, children, low-income households, and low-education households). For example, the Bureau was applying lessons learned from its implementation of an Internet response option for another household survey, called the American Community Survey, which is conducted on a smaller scale than the decennial census. Additionally, the Bureau planned two 2020 census field tests in 2015 that were expected to provide data on Internet response rates among different demographic groups, including the historically hard-to-count populations.

The Bureau’s preliminary estimated costs of about $73 million for the Internet response option were not reliable because its estimate did not conform to best practices. For example, the estimate had not been updated to reflect significant changes related to the Internet response option that had occurred since it was developed in 2011. Additionally, the unreliability of the Bureau’s cost estimate for the Internet response option cast doubt on the reliability of associated potential cost savings estimates. Officials recognized weaknesses in the Bureau’s cost estimate and stated that they planned to update it based on a preliminary decision for the overall design of the 2020 census.

GAO recommended that to ensure that the Bureau was better positioned to deliver an Internet response option for the 2020 Decennial Census, the Secretary of Commerce should direct the Under Secretary for Economic Affairs to direct the Director of the Census Bureau to ensure that the estimated costs associated with the Internet response option were updated to reflect significant changes in the program and to fully meet the characteristics of a reliable cost estimate. The Department of Commerce agreed with the recommendation and took steps to implement it. In August 2017, the Census Bureau finalized its Census Enterprise Data Collection and Processing (CEDCAP) Cost Analysis Requirements Description (CARD) that included a basis for estimating the costs associated with the Internet response option. Subsequently, in December 2017, the Bureau finalized its updated 2020 Decennial life cycle cost estimate that included the CEDCAP CARD as an input to the estimate. GAO’s April 2018 analysis of the updated cost estimate found that the Bureau had made significant improvements in its cost estimation process across the four characteristics of a reliable estimate. As a result, the Bureau was better positioned to deliver an Internet response option for the 2020 Decennial Census.

GAO reported these findings on February 5, 2015 in 2020 Census: Key Challenges Need to Be Addressed to Successful Enable Internet Response, GAO-15-225.